National Oil & Lube News

February 2017

Digital issues of National Oil & Lube News, the trade magazine for the preventive maintenance industry

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During this year's Automotive Aftermarket Product Expo, Nathan Shipley, NPD's director of Industry Analysis, shared how the aftermarket industry per- formed in 2016 and provided insight into what's to come in 2017. A Look at 2016 and what's to come in 2017 Aftermarket outlook 2016 AT A GLANCE "2015 and 2016 were pretty good years for the after- market industry, and it's tough to lap that and grow 4-5 percent every single year," Shipley said. "Prior year performance doesn't necessarily help us grow." As with any given year, there are positives and negatives that come into play and affect day-to-day business — some in a good way, others not so much. 2016 came with good gas prices and hot weather, but there's a lot more to it than that. Let's dive in. "Gas prices are still very cheap, and we have all benefitted from that, because people drove more in 2016," Shipley said. e weather had an effect on profits for 2016 as it was quite a hot year. As we all know, it's not the heat, but the cooler weather that brings in more vehicles for maintenance and repairs and assists in the acces- sories department, as well. "We're seeing deeper discounts on premium brands in a lot of aftermarket categories that are driving down the average retail price," Shipley said. e growth rate through September 2016 was much slower than it was the previous year at just 2 percent. "Motor oil, however, is seeing an accelerated growth," Shipley continued. "In 2014, the volume was down about 1.3 percent, in 2015, it was up 1.4 percent and in 2016, it landed around 1.7 percent." For many years, we were seeing a trend in units sold decreasing, but price per unit increasing. at story is beginning to shift, where dollar sales are slowing down, and unit sales are increasing. Ulti- mately, we are trying to sell more services and mer- chandise for less money. "Miles driven is also a very important number for the automotive aftermarket industry. is number has continued to grow, and this year we are up about 3.2 percent," Shipley said. "is actually equates to over 100 billion more miles driven over the last 12 months." by Kelsey Carlson 24 NOLN | www.noln.net

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